Ignatieff's unable to capitalize on vulnerabilities of government in vicious global economic recession But after eight tough months this data is better than a kick in the teeth. By TIM POWERS, WARREN KINSELLA, BRAD LAVIGNE Published June 29, 2009    5 Comments

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POWERS: After eight long and tough months, a very turbulent period of Canadian politics has come to an end with the arrival of the Parliamentary summer recess. From November's prorogation until the last confidence vote on June 19 we have seen it all. But what remains a constant mystery to me is, despite the bombast and self-adulation of Michael Ignatieff and the Liberal Party of Canada, they're at least so far unable to capitalize on vulnerabilities of an incumbent government in a vicious global economic recession.

A couple of new national polls out last week had the Liberals behind the Conservatives, albeit partially. Angus Reid had the Conservatives at 32 per cent, the Liberals at 31 per cent, the NDP at 18 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 11 per cent, and Green Party at seven per cent. Ekos had the Conservatives at 34.8 per cent, the Liberals at 32.6 per cent, the NDP at 14.3 per cent, the Green Party at 9.3 per cent, and the Bloc Québécois at nine per cent. Certainly the polls provide no reason for the Conservatives to gloat, as much work needs to be done. But after eight tough months these polls are better than a kick in the teeth.

Clearly though, the Liberals also have to be asking themselves some tough questions based on these numbers. With the economy and the can't-miss leader, at least according to himself and the Liberal Party, how is it the Liberal Party is not ahead in opinion surveys? Lest we forget it was just a little over a month ago that Ekos had the Liberals with a seven point lead nationally.

Perhaps the current numbers are a reflection of Iggy's "capitulation in the capital" prior to Parliament recessing. Who knows? But if that is the case, one does wonder how he will hold up under fire as a rookie leader and potential front-runner in a national campaign when every day will feature an intense battle.

According to Ekos, Iggy had a favourable leadership rating of 50 in April, but it had dropped to 32 in their last sampling. While it is clear leadership numbers can move around, a drop of 18 points on your personal rating and a dip in your party's rankings do suggest you have some troubles. It's less a government-in-waiting and more a Boy Scout lost at commando training.

Maybe Iggy exercised some sound judgment by not bowing down to his hawkish caucus knowing the numbers really weren't there for a win? Maybe. The book is still out on his political skills. If you read his other 16 or 17 bound writings you'll find his thoughts are all over the map and sometimes contradictory. Some of that pattern is evident in the way he plays the national chess game for power.

By the time you read this I will have escaped to Portugal for a week break. You can be assured it will be a delight to break free from the madness of Ottawa for the treasures of Algarve where the only lines in the sand will be to the beach bar—though they are likely to be more resolute than a certain Liberal leader's. I'll still be a Canadian while visiting but thoughts of our politics will be vanquished.

Have a good summer one and all. We can fight again in the fall.

KINSELLA: Look, politics has a lot of ups and downs. But in recent months, Canadian politics has been a bit like a roller coaster. From the Stephen Harper-induced constitutional crisis to recent events, we have gone through a lot of stressful times.

Now, Michael Ignatieff is not a professional politician or a lobbyist, like Harper is and was. Ignatieff has done other things with his life.

Because of that, he has—genuinely and truly—tried to do things differently since entering public life. Because of that, he has come to believe that Canadians are fed up with politicians who put naked grabs for power before everything else. They're fed up with the kind of games Harper excels in.

So, when Harper's Reformatories whipped up a crisis at the end of last year, my leader had lots of people—including some in the Liberal Party—urging him to push Harper out and lead a coalition government. Ignatieff certainly could have done that.

But that just isn't how Ignatieff wanted to win. On reflection, he and other Liberals determined that wasn't what Canadians wanted, either. We Liberals want to win, for sure—but we want win the right way.

Right now, the Liberal Party is either ahead or highly competitive in the opinion polls. We've got a great team and we are ready for an election. And, once again, Ignatieff heard from a lot of people—including Liberals—who wanted to defeat the government at the end of June, and have an election just a few months after the last one.

Once again, Ignatieff and Liberals thought about that. And Ignatieff decided, once again, that wasn't how he wanted to win. We've said—over and over—we want to make Parliament work. We meant it. And that's what we're trying to do. You have to mean what you say—you have to do politics differently than Harper plays it, if anything is ever going to change.

Will we defeat the Harper government, sooner or later? Yes, we will. For sure. But we will not be bound by artificial deadlines, or the self-serving spin of the Conservatives and the NDP and the Bloc. Canadians told us they don't want an election right now. We Liberals think Canadians are the boss, and not the other way around. They decide, not politicians.

Our party will vigorously contest the next election, and we will win it. But we will win it the right way. Not through backroom deals, or through brinkmanship.

We will win it the old-fashioned way: in an election, with the support of our fellow Canadians, when they tell us they are ready for it. And we will bring Canadians government that is as honest and as hard-working as they are.

LAVIGNE: The last week of Parliament was an abomination.

The pathetic ramp up and then predictable climb down was one for the playbooks as to why you don't bring a knife to a gunfight. Ignatieff painted himself in the corner with three coats of paint and just as it dried, he folded faster than Superman on laundry day.

And by the public domain numbers it looks as though the folks at home were none too impressed.

In 2007 in The New York Times, Michael Ignatieff said "politics is theatre. It is part of the job to pretend to have emotions that you do not actually feel." Is he offering clues as to how we should interpret his newfound empathy for the unemployed? One day Denis Coderre is suggesting that the rules the Liberals themselves put in place leave the unemployed who don't qualify for Employment Insurance starving. Hours later victory is hailed by the Liberals because a blue ribbon panel is struck in an effort to help the Conservatives introduce a promise they made in the last campaign and which was also contained in an NDP motion which was adopted by the House in May.

Start the week with four demands and end it by dropping them all and then letting the Prime Minster's Office write your opposition day motion. Way to keep' em on probation.

Some suggest that what the Liberals were trying to do was get the stink of the Harper budget off their back onto ours. As the honeymoon ran on, they recognized that as the number of times the Liberals propped up the Conservatives mounted, the differences between the two would blur. The judo move did not work. Like any good father, once they helped give birth to the budget, they have to stick around and help raise it.

Layton kicks-off the barbecue season solid at 18 per cent according to Angus Reid. He also has a list of accomplishments to springboard the team into the party's August convention:. Let's take a roll call. He launched two national task forces on the middle class and economic recovery; has three bills at third reading that include early childhood education bill, the Climate Change Accountability Act and the best EI reform bill in front of the House. Other successes include the passenger bill of rights, the right to repair bill and the pension reform and credit card protection motions—both of which passed the House. Stack that list of accomplishments up to the Bloc or the Liberals.

Add the fact that we scored 42 per cent in the BC election and won a historical victory in Nova Scotia with Darrel Dexter and you have a great foundation to build on for the fall. Enjoy the summer—at least it'll be 10 weeks without any possible election call.

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