Some federal Conservatives now jumpy about prorogation backlash Some GTA and Quebec Tories recently expressed concern in caucus meetings about Parliament's shutdown, but the Libs shouldn't pull the trigger just yet. By ANGELO PERSICHILLI Published February 8, 2010    5 Comments

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TORONTO—Public opinion polls, as we all know, go up and down and in the last few years have been more volatile than feathers in the wind, as Giuseppe Verdi put it in the Rigoletto. Still, the last slump of the Conservatives has created some turmoil within Prime Minister Stephen Harper's minority governing caucus and some excitement within Liberal ranks.

Despite that the decision to prorogue Parliament was initially welcomed by most of the Conservative caucus members, there is now a lingering disappointment with the decision. Some are trying to blame the Prime Minister and the PMO.

These feelings, gently, but openly emerged during the GTA and Quebec Conservatives' caucus meetings held in the last few weeks.

Some Conservative MPs, even if not against the decision to prorogue Parliament, were not happy with the PMO's communications plan, or lack of one, to explain to Canadians the reasons for the prorogation.

I'm sure that, by now, they have realized that the decision was not in the best interests of the government, and/or its execution was faulty. Still, they believe that it's too late to go back for two reasons. They don't want Canadians to think the Prime Minister is a weak leader who changes his views with the polls and the Throne Speech is not ready.

At the same time, some Liberals are encouraged by the changes and are taking a big breath of relief, knowing that Prime Minister Harper won't provoke an election this spring. There are some Liberals who are so encouraged by this change in the mood of the electorate that they are seriously considering the possibility of bringing down the government after the presentation of the next budget.

Of course this kind of action is, for now, vehemently disputed by many Liberal strategists. First because they know that the mood of the electorate changes very often and what is true today is not necessarily true in a couple weeks.

The second reason is the one that concerns the Liberals the most. The changes in the voting preferences of the electorate have little to do with the Liberal Party and much less with its leader Michael Ignatieff. The whole issue is about the government and Harper and this can change in the next few weeks after the Olympics and, mainly, after the March budget.

The Ekos poll last week put the Liberals at 31.9 per cent and the Tories at 31 per cent, which is well within the margin of error. The same poll put the NDP at 15.4 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 8.4 per cent, and the Green Party at 10.9 per cent. Those numbers would give the Liberals the possibility of forming a minority government, but this is like Ignatieff betting his political future on the 6/49. The jury on his leadership credibility is still out and the doubts about his performance during a very tough and long campaign have not been tested yet.

Furthermore, the Liberals have already tried to bring the government down last fall, but their action failed miserably because the other two opposition parties didn't bite and supported the government. To go to the polls, the Liberals need something more consistent in electoral support, and if they get it, it will not come from the Conservatives, but most likely from the Bloc Québécois in Quebec and the NDP in the rest of the country.

If that happens, I'm not sure that the other two parties are eager to switch from a Harper minority government to one led by Ignatieff, the same guy who killed the coalition of 2008 between the three opposition parties.

It would be politically wise for the Liberals to work hard to rebuild the party, the policies and the leader, before gambling on their future and that of the country.

Unfortunately, they have tried once and they could try again. For some in the Liberal Party going back to power is everything and, it also might be that losing again to another minority Conservative government will give them the opportunity to get rid of Ignatieff which would be seen by some Liberals as a victory in itself.

Angelo Persichilli is political editor of Corriere Canadese, Canada's Italian newspaper based in Toronto.

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