THE 71 CLOSEST RACES IN THE COUNTRY TO WATCH IN NEXT ELECTION
The Conservatives and Liberals are expected to focus on these 71 ridings where the margin of victory was 10 per cent or less in the last election.
These ridings are base on the results from the last general election held on Oct. 14, 2008. This list was published in the Sept. 7, 2009 issue of The Hill Times.
| Newfoundland and Labrador | Libs | Tories | NDP | Lead |
| 1 | St. John’s South-Mount Pearl | 43.3% | 12.6% | 40.6% | 2.7% |
| Prince Edward Island | Libs | Tories | NDP | Lead |
| 2 | Egmont | 43.63% | 43.93% | 9.0% | 0.3% |
| 3 | Malpeque | 44.18% | 39.27% | 9.7% | 4.9% |
| Nova Scotia | Libs | Tories | NDP | Lead |
| 4 | Dartmouth-Cole Harbour | 39.5% | 22.5% | 31.5% | 8.0% |
| 5 | South Shore-St. Margaret’s | 23.85% | 35.98% | 33.65% | 2.3% |
| 6 | West Nova | 36.1% | 39.9% | 16.9% | 3.8% |
| New Brunswick | Libs | Tories | NDP | Lead |
| 7 | Miramichi | 36.95% | 42.0% | 17.1% | 5.0% |
| 8 | Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe | 39.12% | 35.8% | 16.2% | 3.32% |
| 9 | Saint John | 38.1% | 39.5% | 15.9% | 1.4% |
| Quebec | Libs | Tories | NDP | Bloc | Lead |
| 10 | Ahuntsic | 38.59% | 10.36% | 8.97% | 39.48% | 0.89% |
| 11 | Alfred-Pellan | 29.3% | 16.25% | 12.0% | 38.83% | 9.56% |
| 12 | Beauport-Limolou | 14.36% | 36.76% | 12.23% | 32.61% | 4.15% |
| 13 | Brome-Missisquoi | 32.79% | 18.66% | 9.04% | 35.20% | 2.4% |
| 14 | Brossard-La Prairie | 32.46% | 18.86% | 12.71% | 32.58% | 0.12% |
| 15 | Chicoutimi-Le Fjord | 13.44% | 34.91% | 7.83% | 41.31% | 7.0% |
| 16 | Gatineau | 25.32% | 16.81% | 26.12% | 29.15% | 3.0% |
| 17 | Jeanne-Le Ber | 32.25% | 11.18% | 15.69% | 34.91% | 2.66% |
| 18 | Laval | 28.1% | 18.0% | 12.45% | 37.79% | 9.69% |
| 19 | Louis-Hébert | 23.59% | 28.20% | 9.32% | 36.23% | 12.64% |
| 20 | Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia | 35.59% | 18.07% | 4.68% | 37.54% | 1.93% |
| 21 | Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou | 18.42% | 30.37% | 8.2% | 39.65% | 9.2% |
| 22 | Outremont | 33.07% | 10.52% | 39.53% | 12.54% | 6.4% |
| 23 | Papineau | 41.47% | 7.63% | 7.63% | 38.69% | 2.78% |
| 24 | Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier | 16.27% | 12.68% | 32.01% | 33.48% | 1.475 |
| 25 | Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean | 10.09% | 43.54% | 4.71% | 39.65% | 3.89% |
| 26 | Saint-Lambert | 28.5% | 15.80% | 14.45% | 37.62% | 9.1% |
| Ontario | Libs | Tories | NDP | Lead |
| 27 | Ajax-Pickering | 44.52% | 37.94% | 9.08% | 6.58% |
| 28 | Beaches-East York | 40.97% | 17.08% | 32.13% | 8.84% |
| 29 | Bramlea-Gore-Malton | 37.12% | 45.05% | 12.02% | 7.93% |
| 30 | Brampton-Springdale | 41.03% | 39.32% | 11.57% | 1.71% |
| 31 | Brampton West | 40.32% | 39.89% | 13.60% | 0.43% |
| 32 | Brant | 33.10% | 41.95% | 17.21% | 8.85% |
| 33 | Eglinton Lawrence | 43.98% | 39.25% | 8.34% | 4.73% |
| 34 | Haldiman-Norfolk | 32.35% | 40.82% | 10.01% | 8.47% |
| 35 | Kenora | 31.62% | 40.46% | 23.22% | 8.84% |
| 36 | Kingston and the Islands | 39.14% | 32.53% | 17.49% | 6.61% |
| 37 | Kitchener Centre | 35.94% | 36.69% | 18.08% | 0.75% |
| 38 | Kitchener Waterloo | 36.06% | 36.03% | 14.72% | 0.3% |
| 39 | London North Centre | 39.12% | 32.97% | 17.47% | 6.15% |
| 40 | London West | 35.41% | 39.09% | 14.57% | 3.68% |
| 41 | Mississauga-Erindale | 42.00% | 42.71% | 8.54% | 0.71% |
| 42 | Mississauga South | 44.22% | 39.58% | 7.34% | 4.64% |
| 43 | Mississauga-Streetsville | 45.76% | 35.80% | 9.92% | 9.96% |
| 44 | Oak Ridges-Markham | 45.76% | 42.24% | 9.39% | 0.72% |
| 45 | Ottawa-Orléans | 38.81% | 44.91% | 9.93% | 6.1% |
| 46 | Parkdale-High Park | 42.97% | 12.43% | 35.97% | 7.05 |
| 47 | Sault Ste. Marie | 16.75% | 37.71% | 40.42% | 2.71% |
| 48 | Sudbury | 30.20% | 25.78% | 35.14% | 4.94% |
| 49 | Thornhill | 39.43% | 49.01% | 6.62% | 9.58% |
| 50 | Thunder Bay-Rainy River | 32.27% | 23.57% | 40.31% | 8.04% |
| 51 | Thunder Bay-Superior North | 28.31% | 26.83% | 37.02% | 8.71% |
| 52 | Trinity-Spadina | 35.02% | 13.77% | 40.83% | 5.8% |
| 53 | Welland | 27.93% | 32.90% | 32.32% | 0.58% |
| 54 | York Centre | 43.46% | 38.00% | 12.10% | 5.46% |
| Manitoba | Libs | Tories | NDP | Lead |
| 55 | Elmwood-Transcona | 6.62% | 40.73% | 45.77% | 5.04% |
| 56 | Winnipeg South Centre | 42.26% | 36.26% | 14.11% | 6.0% |
| Saskatchewan | Libs | Tories | NDP | Lead |
| 57 | Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar | 4.4% | 45.39% | 44.41% | 0.98% |
| Alberta | Libs | Tories | NDP | Lead |
| 58 | Edmonton-Strathcona | 9.06% | 41.60 | 42.58% | 0.98% |
| British Columbia | Libs | Tories | NDP | Lead |
| 59 | Nanaimo-Cowichan | 7.37% | 37.58% | <45.17%/td> | 7.59% |
| 60 | Newton-North Delta | 36.42% | 30.91% | 26.12% | 5.51% |
| 61 | New Westminster-Coquitlam | 11.29% | 38.83% | 41.83% | 3.0% |
| 62 | North Vancouver | 37.36% | 42.25% | 9.39% | 4.895 |
| 63 | Saanich-Gulf Islands | 39.35% | 43.42% | 5.68% | 4.07% |
| 64 | Surrey North | 15.00% | 39.37% | 36.19% | 3.18% |
| 65 | Vancouver Centre | 34.50% | 25.09% | 21.31% | 9.41% |
| 66 | Vancouver Island North | 4.19% | 45.77% | 41.37% | 4.4% |
| 67 | Vancouver Kingsway | 29.06% | 27.41% | 35.17% | 6.11% |
| 68 | Vancouver Quadra | 45.59% | 36.91% | 8.06% | 8.68% |
| 69 | Vancouver South | 38.49% | 38.494 | 17.62% | 0.05% |
| Northwest Territories | Libs | Tories | NDP | Lead |
| 70 | Western Arctic | 13.58% | 37.62% | 41.44% | 3.82% |
| Nunavut | Libs | Tories | NDP | Lead |
| 71 | Nunavut | 29.14% | 34.92% | 27.63% | 5.78% |
THE 13 UNHELD-TORY TARGETED RIDINGS BASED ON
THE HOME RENOVATION TAX CREDIT:
| 1 | Mississauga South, Ont. Liberal MP Paul Szabo |
| 2 | Mississauga-Brampton South, Ont. Liberal MP Navdeep Bains |
| 3 | Kingston and the Islands, Ont. Liberal MP Peter Milliken |
| 4 | Nipissing-Timiskaming, Ont. Liberal MP Anthony Rota |
| 5 | Welland, Ont. NDP MP Malcolm Allen |
| 6 | Markham-Unionville, Ont. Liberal MP John McCallum |
| 7 | Vancouver Quadra, B.C. Liberal MP Joyce Murray |
| 8 | New Westminster-Coquitlam, B.C. Vacant |
| 9 | Nanaimo-Cowichan, B.C. NDP MP Jean Crowder |
| 10 | British Columbia Southern Interior, B.C. NDP MP Alex Atamanenko |
| 11 | Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, B.C. Liberal MP Keith Martin |
| 12 | Edmonton-Strathcon, Alta. NDP MP Linda Duncan |
| 13 | Western Arctic, N.W.T. NDP MP Dennis Bevington |
Source: Pundits’ Guide
Page updated on March 10, 2010
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